All things well

Birthday cake

Today is my 46th birthday. I don’t normally like to draw attention to myself, but as it is my birthday I ask your permission for a few moments of your time to read this birthday message.

This year may well be the most important year in human history. An incredible statement I know, and not one that is original to me (it first came across my radar in a letter at the beginning of the year from Tom Burke, one of Britain’s influential campaigners on environmental issues).  Take a moment to think what that means. More significant than 1989, the year the Berlin Wall came down. More significant than 1969, the year we landed on the moon. More significant than 1945, or 1917, 1788, 1066 or any other significant date you can think of.

Why is this year so important?  Because what happens this year will largely determine whether our grandchildren live in an enhanced and stable world, or whether they toil, cursing us, in a kind of hell. The whole of human recorded history and civilization has occurred within a fairly narrow temperature range.

Sweet spot

The signs now are that we are heading out of this range, and if we do not commit to taking serious significant action this year, we will set ourselves on an irreversible path leading to a 5-7C warming by the end of this century.  In December this year, in Copenhagen, a new climate treaty will be negotiated.  According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the world must commit to halving CO2 emmisions by 2050 if we are to have a chance of keeping global warming within 2C.

But the signs are that we have to act soon.  So far global temperatures have risen by less than 1C, and we are already experiencing catastrophic droughts, floods, hurricanes and the melting of glaciers (the melt water from Himalayan glaciers feed millions in Asia). A recent survey of the Arctic found that the average ice thickness is now just 1.7M and that by 2020 (just over 10 years time) the Arctic will be ice-free in summer. The first population evacuations due to rising sea levels have already taken place and the people of the Maldives are looking for a new home. In my local supermarket the price of rice has doubled in the last couple of years, and will no doubt go higher because 95% of the NSW rice harvest has been lost to drought and floods.

Some people may comfort themselves with the idea that the scientists have got it wrong.  The media (who love controversy) have given lots of exposure to the climate change sceptics.  If you fall into this category, please look at the New Scientist articles on Climate Change, a Guide to the Perplexed, which deals with all the arguments of climate-change sceptics convincingly. And no, global warming is not all because of changes in the sun.  And if you are one of the people who is convinced by Prof. Ian Pilmer’s book Heaven and Earth, I suggest you read this critique of his arguments.

Lots of other people know that we must make these changes but are playing a waiting game.  For example politicians waiting for other countries to commit to CO2 reductions before we commit ourselves.  Or people waiting for new technologies to come along and save us.

There is a branch of social sciences called Game Theory which could be applied to the political scene. Game theory deals with situations where co-operation is needed and benefits all, but where individual players can gain a temporary advantage by acting selfishly.  Game theory predicts that acting selfishly is not a winning strategy in the long term because cooperation breaks down and everyone loses.  The way to win is to encourage cooperation by standing up and taking risks: being prepared to ‘do the right thing’ even if, at first, others do not.  It signals that we are trustworthy and perpared to cooperate.  On the international scene, everyone knows that we must get China on board.  There are signs that the Chinese leadership are aware of the need for action and are prepared to come to the table at Copenhagen. But they are insisting that the developed world makes bigger cuts than the developing world.  This seems to me to be fair enough on the principle that everyone on this planet it entitled to the same carbon footprint.  But, of course, the Western politicians are resisting this.

As far as waiting for technology to save us, well, the technology is already here. And it is not too expensive either ( 0.12%, or about a tenth of a cent on the dollar, on GDP)  What is missing is the political will to apply it.  Big oil and big coal are spending millions of dollars lobbying governments to delay action.

What can we do?  First of all, get informed (follow some of the links in this message, subscribe to the posts from http://climateprogress.org). Then go and see your local politician and keep writing to them. They may not be that well informed themselves. Politicians often don’t have time to think and simply respond to pressure.  Inform others (pass on this email if you like).  And take action in your own life. It doesn’t have to cost anything – even going vegetarian one more meal a week and buying less processed food can make a big difference.  But if I had to choose between being personally more green or campaigning for political action, I believe the more effective choice would be to become politically active.

If you have got this far, then I thank you from the bottom of my heart for reading this. It is the best birthday gift you could give me.